Fever Dreams

As the annual World Series of Poker kicks into high gear, I’ve been tracking the action through twitter and must admit I’m sort of jealous that I’m not there during this once-in-an-orange-moon Halloween version of the event. This year there are no 115 degree days, or sunsets that creep down below the mountains at 8 pm so that the mercury drops below 100 by midnight (if you’re lucky). All that heat can sometimes make you a little crazy. But, when it comes to sports betting, there’s still a hot debate over which is crazier: risking a big chunk of your bankroll on a huge edge, or arbitraging to lock in a profit (at the expense of giving back some of that edge by betting a -EV line on the other side). It’s an argument as old as the Red Rock mountains.

Luckily, when you look at the issue in the correct way (i.e., the way that will grow your bankroll the quickest), the answer comes into focus. In order to maximize your expected growth you should….

read this article I wrote back in April:

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